35th Annual MA Architects Survey

by Paul Deffenbaugh | March 2, 2021 12:00 am

In spite of all that uncertainty, respondents to the 35th annual architects survey were not wildly pessimistic and, in many instances, very optimistic. The likelihood of our survey takers specifying a metal roof, metal wall system, metal building system or a metal framing system remained relatively consistent from 2019 to 2020 and even projected to 2021. There were slight fluctuations up and down, but for the most part the results held steady.

What was a surprise, though, was the percentage of our respondents whose projects included a metal roof, wall panel, building system or framing system. Between 2019 and 2020, our respondents indicated the number of projects in which they specified such products actually increased in spite of the economic downturn. Metal roofs increased 1.1% from 2019 to 2020, metal walls 5.6%, metal building systems 6.9%, and metal framing 5.9%.

In spite of the pandemic and the economic slowdown, architects were more likely to specify metal building products last year than the year before.

Supporting this conclusion is that Dodge Data & Analytics predicts that construction starts will increase 4% in 2021 and, in a way, that number is remarkably low. If the last year were as bad as reported, a rebound—even back to normal—would indicate a significantly higher number. There’s a reason for that. The last year was, surprisingly, not as bad as we thought.

Part of what might be driving this success is the residential market, which had a very strong year in 2020. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), total housing starts for 2020 were 1.38 million, a 7% gain over the 1.29 total from 2019. Single-family starts in 2020 totaled 991,000, up 11.7% from the previous year. Multifamily starts in 2020 totaled 389,000, down 3.3% from the previous year.

That last category is a little worrisome for the metal wall panel products, which have a heavy interest in multifamily construction. But the increase in single-family starts combined with an increase in market share for metal roofing indicates that the residential segment is a growth prospect for metal roofing. Anecdotally, the high-end luxury home market has seemed to embrace metal wall panels as a cladding, which bodes well for increased market share in that market, even if it is a small segment.

General Statistics

For the most part, respondents to our survey are consistent from year to year with slight fluctuations. In 2021, we saw a higher percentage of survey-takers who were members of architecture firms (64.2%) compared to 2020 (58.8%). And there were three types of firms where we saw decreases, although they couldn’t be considered significant. Members of design-build firms declined from 17.6% to 14.2%, integrated construction from 9.2% to 5.4% and engineering/architecture firms from 4.2% to 1.4%. But the bulk of respondents (88.9%) come from architecture, design-build and architecture/engineering firms. Last year, that cohort represented 86.4% of our respondents.

The representation of participants in the firm has also remained consistent over the years, although we have dropped some categories. More than 90% of our participants are owners or partners in a firm, part of company management, chief architect or staff architect. In that past, we have had higher (but not significant) involvement from specification writers and exterior designers. Last year, we dropped both of those categories, and this year, we dropped the architectural intern category, figuring that people in that position have little access to the kinds of information we’re seeking for this survey.

Our respondents were equally represented across all regions with the exception of the Eastern United States, which had only 1.5.% of our total respondents. The other regions each represented between 27% and 29% of respondents.

Following a pattern, company firm size has also been consistent over the years. Not surprisingly, companies billing less than $1 million represent more than half of our respondents (51%), which is slightly lower than last year’s 54.9%. This year, 78.3% of respondents worked for firms billing less than $5 million dollars. Last year, 85.5% were in firms billing under $5 million.

Where we begin to see a real representation of the kind of difficulties architects faced in 2020 is when survey takers compare 2020 billings to 2019. About half of respondents say billings decreased in 2020, and nearly 7% say billings decreased more than 50%. Over a quarter of respondents say billings decreased more than 25%.

This is a significant change from last year’s survey. Last year, 81.1% of respondents reported increased billings in 2019 compared to 2018. And 11.7% said billings went up more than 50%. That was the sign of a robust, growing market.

It shouldn’t be surprising the billings declined in 2020 compared to 2019, and perhaps the real surprise is the only half of the firms reported a decline. The other half reported increases, even though most of those increases were less than 5%.

Metal Roofing

Our survey takers say 26.7% of the new construction projects they worked on in 2020 included metal roofs. That was a 3.4% increase from 2019. On renovation projects, just over 20% of projects included metal roofs in 2020, which was comparable to the previous year. Across regions, those increases were consistent for new construction work. The South reported 35.8% of their 2020 new construction projects included metal roofs, making it the largest participant, but the other all fell in the 20-30% range with the West coming lowest at 21.4%. The increase over 2019 across all regions, though, was nearly equal although the West did report a higher increase of 6.5% compared to 2019.

For metal roofing in renovation projects was a little more volatile among regions. The West again had the lowest total in 2020 at 13.6%, while the East had the highest at 25%. Respondents from the West reported at 12.4% increase in 2020 over 2019, while the East reported a decline of 4.3% year over year.

Projecting forward, our respondents expressed considerable optimism about the likelihood of specifying metal roofing in a project. Nationally, nearly a quarter said they expect to specify more, while less than 10% anticipate a lower specification rate. Again, the East and West pop out in this comparison. In the East, 15% of respondents say they will specify less metal roofing on projects in 2021, but in the West, only 3.2% say specification rates will decline.

Among types of metal roofing specified, low-slope standing seam metal roofing always reigns supreme. This year, that is truer than ever with 52.7% of survey takers saying they specified a low-slope standing seam metal roof in 2020. When combined with the specification of that roof type on high-slope structures, the total increases to 70%. Clearly, standing seam metal roof is the metal roof of choice. One type to note in its increased compared to last year is insulated metal roof panels. In our survey last year, 29% of respondents said they specified IMPs for roofing in the previous year, but this year, the report on specification for 2020 increased to 35.5%.

Metal Wall Panels

In both new construction and renovation projects, our respondents report increases from 2019 to 2020 in the percentage of projects that included metal wall panels. Nationally, new construction projects were specified on 28.3% of projects in 2020, which was a 5.6% increase over 2019. For renovation work, the percentage of projects with metal wall panels in 2020 was about 19.2%, which was a 5.9% increase over 2019.

That would indicate that metal wall panels are gaining market share. If the number of construction projects is increasing, but the number that include metal wall panels has decreased, then that increase has to come at the expense of another cladding material.

That optimism is borne out in the anticipated number of projects that will include metal wall panels in 2021. Of our respondents, 18.9% says they will specify more metal wall panels this year and about three quarters will specify the same amount. Only 6.6% report they will decrease the specification of metal wall panels in 2021. Two regions stand as outliers to this. The Midwest reports nearly 90% of them will specify about the same with nearly 7% specifying more. But in the South, only 56.7% will specify about the same. A third will specify more and 10% will specify fewer metal wall panels.

Anecdotally, the number of projects we see that include perforated or expanded metal wall panels has increased dramatically in the last few years, but our survey reports that increase may have slowed. Last year, 22.8% of respondents specified such products the previous year, and this year that percentage edged up to 29.1%. There were, however, make increased in concealed fastening metal wall panels (54% to 65.8%), exposed fastening (40.5% to 55.7%) and corrugated (45.6% to 69.6%). One design influence that we see more of is the use of metal to refer back to an agrarian lifestyle. This occurs in every kind of building type from residential to retail to industry to office building, and that trend is supported by the increased specification of corrugated metal wall panels.

Metal Buildings and Metal Framing Systems

Metal building systems are an area of increasing interest for architects, and as they grow in more sophistication, they provide a wider range of solutions for designers. Throughout the years, the strongest region for metal building systems has already been the South, and this year that pattern holds true. Architects in the South report they used metal building systems on 29.5% of their projects in 2019 and 33.9% in 2020. Those numbers compare to the national averages of 19.7% for 2019 and 21% in 2020.

Overall, respondents to this year’s survey were less likely to use metal building systems than respondents to last year’s for new construction, but for renovation projects, the percentage of respondents’ projects that include metal building systems was roughly equal. Last year, survey takers said 16.8% of projects used metal building systems in the previous year compared to 14.9%.

For both new construction and renovation, the reliance on metal building systems increased from 2019 to 2020. For new construction, the year-over-year increase was 6.9% and for renovation projects it was 8.1%.

Looking to 2021, 19% of our respondents expect to do more metal building systems. In the South, that percentage is 30%, which isn’t surprising considering the continued strength of metal building systems in the South.

Metal framing systems are also anticipated to increase in 2021, with 21.6% of our survey takers saying they will specify more metal framing systems, while only 5.9% anticipate a decrease in 2021.

Green Technologies

The going consensus is that through programs such as the U.S. Green Building Council’s LEED certification and increase focus of building codes on energy there has been a shift to sustainable building practices. If you look at our respondents’ report on their use of solar products such as photovoltaics and film, that consensus is supported. Over the last eight years, there is a clear, but small trend in the number of survey takers who say they specify solar products. In 2013, it was 26.8% and in 2020 it was 34.3%.

In the use of metal products to achieve LEED points and the specification of cool metal roof products, though, the reverse is true. Over the same period, their usage has declined. In 2013, metal products used to achieve LEED was done in 33.1% of projects and in 2020 it was 25.5%. There are ups and downs through the years, but the trend is downward. The same is true of cool metal roofing specification. In 2013, 42.8% of respondents specified them, but in 2020 only 35% specified.

There are things that could explain that including larger trends such as decline in the number of projects seeking LEED certification and, for coatings, that cool metal products are so mainstream that specification is less warranted.

The sustainability movement isn’t going away, of course. And the proof of that is in the number of respondents who say they anticipate specifying solar products in 2021. Across the board, none expect to specify less usage. It doesn’t matter which region. Every region is the same.

Source URL: https://www.metalarchitecture.com/articles/35th-annual-ma-architects-survey/

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