The Growth of Solar

Installed

Despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, recent reports are showing expectations for this year’s solar installations to beat last year’s record-breaking year. On September 10, the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) released its U.S. Solar Market Insight Q3 2020 report. The report noted that the U.S. installed 3.5 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV capacity in the second quarter of 2020 to reach 85 GW of total installed capacity, which is enough to power 16.1 million American homes. Overall, this was a drop of 6% from Q1 installations with residential installations were down 23% and the non-residential sector down 12%, mainly due to the shelter-in-place orders during the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite this, Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables is forecasting a 37% annual growth this year, with more than 18 GWdc of installations expected, down 6% relative to the pre-pandemic forecasts. In total, the U.S. solar market is expected to install nearly 100 GWdc of solar between 2021-2025, an increase of 42% over the previous five years.

In a report released on Oct. 5, BloombergNEF forecasted that there would be 3 GW of residential solar installations this year, topping last year’s previous high of 2.8 GW. BloombergNEF says it expects another 3.6 GW to be installed next year. While demand for solar took a bit of a hit earlier this year, the report says that a shift to digital sales from door-to-door sales proved fruitful, deepening the pool of potential customers.

Jobs

In its 10th annual National Solar Jobs Census, The Solar Foundation notes that the U.S solar industry employed nearly 250,000 workers in 2019, an increase of more than 5,600 jobs—or 2.3%—since 2018. This comes after two years of job losses in 2017 and 2018.

In the 10 years the Solar Jobs Census has been published, American solar jobs have increased 167%, from just over 93,000 jobs in 2010 to 249,983 jobs in 2019. And, in the five years between 2014 and 2019, solar employment increased 44%, five times faster than job growth in the overall U.S. economy.

According to The Solar Foundation, most of the solar job gains in 2019 were in installation and project development, which added approximately 7,000 jobs. Overall, the industry sector employs 162,126 solar workers, and about 16,000 of those focus on battery storage. The solar manufacturing sector grew by almost 700 jobs, for a total of 34,423.

In 2019, solar jobs increased in 31 states, with growth well outpacing the national average in many emerging solar markets. Florida, Georgia, Utah, New York, Texas, Illinois and Virginia all added the most solar jobs that year.

Increased Consumer Interest

With residential solar roof systems becoming much more mainstream, Renee Ramey, executive director of the Metal Roofing Alliance, says consumers appreciate the idea of being more energy independent while lowering their utility expenses year after year. “Utility company incentives available in many regions are also helping drive solar demand,” she says.

And, she notes, this year, California became the first state to mandate that new homes produce more clean energy than ever before, which includes the installation of rooftop solar panels. “The state’s leadership on this front was a giant step forward to bring solar power into the mainstream for all homeowners, no matter where they live. It also promises to cause a major shift in the building and construction industry for how to adopt methods and materials that are better suited for solar systems.”

The increased interest in solar isn’t just coming from homeowners; building owners have also become more energy conscious. “On the commercial side, many building owners and business owners realize that metal roofs are a ideal platform for solar integration, and they understand the savings potential when installing solar on their roof,” says Dan Javan, CEO of Holmdel, N.J.-based Suntuity Solar.

Additionally, Javan says he sees the same awareness happening on the consumer side. “We especially see this in states that have more aggressive energy programs,” he adds. “I believe a combination of greater public awareness and the media—both traditional and digital—are two key factors. Add to this the increased number of solar providers entering the marketplace and the message regarding solar is spreading.”

Economics and Finance

Rob Haddock, CEO and founder of S-5!, Colorado Springs, Colo., says the increased interest in solar is being driven, in part, by a greater awareness of climate change and a desire to take action by reducing the need for fossil fuels. “Rooftop solar is not a fad. It is here to stay,” he says. “Ecological concerns aside, it just makes good economic sense—here and now. When the solar asset pays back in five to seven years and turns cash positive for the ensuing 25 years, it’s an economical no-brainer.”

And, with the cost of solar decreasing significantly in the last decade, Haddock notes the breakeven and return on investment improve every year. This is even more evident with solar on metal roofs since it makes even greater financial sense. “In addition, federal and local incentives are significant drivers to making solar more popular, as well as solar mandates in various municipalities throughout the United States resulting in an increased use of solar.”

Javan thinks the increased exposure on social platforms and traditional media, coupled with increased advertising by solar providers, is also leading to increased interest for solar. “Solar arrays are now being installed and being seen by potential customers on a greater number of homes and buildings around the country,” he adds. “We definitely see greater growth in markets that have favorable energy programs. The great thing about solar is regardless of an individual’s economic situation, as long as they qualify, there is an affordable payment program available to them.

“In spite of the changing political tide during the last three years, solar energy is still being recognized as a viable option for businesses and homeowners alike to substantially reduce energy costs year in and year out,” Javan explains. “Regardless of varying individual’s opinions on the environment, personal energy savings has become a binary issue—homeowners and business owners are asking the question: Do I want to save money on my electric bill each month? Yes or no?”

Solar and Metal Roofing

Increased interest in solar also lends itself to an increased interest in metal roofing. “The reason why solar and metal roofs are so well matched is because the return on a residential roof-mounted solar investment is only as good as the quality and longevity of the roof where it’s installed,” Ramey explains. “Metal roofs are the best option for photovoltaic systems, greatly reducing the risk of a roof failing before a solar panel system does. The estimated lifespan of solar panels is typically about 20 to 25 years while metal roofs can last for 50-plus years, two or three times the average life span of other types of roofing materials. That means a metal roof should easily outlast the solar panels. Metal also is exceptionally strong and durable, able to support the weight of potentially heavy solar systems by using a simple attachment and clip solution that does not require drilling holes into the roof or the need for self-ballasted systems, reducing the possibility of roofing failures and potential leaks.”

As Javan explains, over the last 20 years, the popularity of metal roofs has grown in many pockets of the country as well as in the islands. “This trend has not slowed down, and surprisingly it appears that even during the current health/economic crisis, the number of metal roof installations continues to grow,” he says. “On the solar side, we are seeing a similar trend as well.”

While most of the country was closed down earlier this year due to Covid-19, Javan notes that homeowners continued to install solar on their homes. And while businesses were furloughing employees, solar providers like Suntuity were actually hiring more sales personnel and installation crews to handle the demand for solar.

“The more homeowners and architects are educated about the benefits of metal roof systems, solar reflectance and the fact that a metal roof is the perfect platform for installing solar, the greater the interest in a longer-lasting, better preforming, more sustainable roof option,” Javan adds.

Solar and Net Zero Homes

Solar energy is a natural transition into net zero energy homes, which offer a healthier environment, better air infiltration, more comfortable temperatures, less noise, better moisture control, sturdier construction and independence from the power grid. According to Javan, the solar energy aspect however is one of the more compelling variables because it ultimately results in cost savings that contribute so heavily to the pay back of the project. “Today more homeowners are thinking ahead and considering building a home that generates its own energy making it an even greater investment and ensuring an even higher payout at resale,” he explains. “In fact, at Suntuity, we are in the process—through our Suntuity Home Division—of building a one-of-a-kind LEED Platinum home that meets net zero energy standards. This will be the first of many net zero homes we plan on building through our Suntuity Home division and it’s where we believe the trend of better informed, cost conscious and more proactive new home buyers is shifting.”

Solar energy is a critical element to achieving net zero status. “While there is some increase for homeowners to strive for net zero energy, it is still somewhat of a novelty due to economic detractors,” Haddock says. “Basic grid-tied solar PV solutions are financially feasible with a quick payback and sustained cash savings on energy bills for ensuing decades. The necessary addition of storing generated power, however, increases the cost and payback period significantly. (Battery storage is generally required for the achievement of net zero.)”

“Utility rates also have a dramatic effect on overall economic feasibilities,” Haddock continues. “Residential electrical costs in the continental U.S. are comparatively low when looking at a global perspective. The costs of power in Hawaii, Puerto Rico or Australia, for instance, are three to five times the typical rates in the continental U.S. So, a system that takes seven years to pay back here takes only two or three there. Nevertheless, the awareness of climate change and the desire for energy independence is accelerating in our culture. The solar industry projects that battery storage will be incorporated into 30% of residential solar applications by 2025.”

Adds Ramey, net zero homes not only produce and save a great deal of energy, they also are typically designed to be more protected and durable. “Quality metal roofs are ideal for homeowners who want to go net zero, because they offer a longer-lasting and more secure base for solar systems, are exceptionally energy efficient and they reduce waste/are recyclable at the end of their long life,” she says. “Using metal roofs designed to reduce environmental impacts and stand up to climate extremes such as wildfires and damage from hail and high winds, also makes them a better long-term investment.”

While more expensive than a conventional home, Javan says the cost of building a net zero home is not as expensive as one might think. “[The cost is] approximately 7% to 10% more expensive than building a traditional home and about 2% more expensive for a net zero-ready home—and the benefits go far beyond strictly energy savings, cost of ownership savings and ROI—all very good reasons for a net zero or a net zero energy-ready strategy,” Javan explains.

Solar and Energy Codes

In addition to helping market adoption and for homeowners to learn about the long-term benefits of solar and other energy saving programs, codes and incentives can also drive market advancements and demand, which Ramey says is helpful for increasing the availability and ultimately driving down costs as technologies get increasingly more mainstream.

However, as Haddock explains, the role of codes and regulations are a double-edged sword. “Some are very positive for solar, such as the residential solar mandates for new buildings enacted in California this year, and others may increase hurdles making it more complex and difficult to install solar,” he says.

“As the use of solar increases, so do the number of codes and standards,” Haddock continues. “This is inevitable and the right thing to do but may inadvertently increase the hurdles to deploy solar. Some of the energy codes are focused on energy efficiency first (ASHRAE), which can reduce the demand by homeowners to install solar (more insulation equals less power consumption to heat and cool). In some cases, the local utilities also fight against solar installations with size limits, buy-back policies and bi-directional meter surcharges. This can be changed by regulatory authorities, but it is a slow process.”

As more and more cities, counties and states enact regulations and building codes mandating the installation of solar photovoltaics or solar-ready design on new building construction, Haddock says this is a big change from the past when there was no consideration for accommodating solar on new construction, and then attempting to retroactively fit solar on a roof. “These mandates will result in the accelerated growth of rooftop solar, with the intent also to reduce costs and maximize energy output of solar installations—leading to higher ROIs and lower hurdles in deploying solar PV.”

Federal and state codes are updated regularly, Javan says, to ensure that systems are developed and installed to be as safe as possible. “While all are designed for maximum safety, some do affect the system’s performance slightly. For the most part, these codes result in solar equipment manufacturers developing products that are safer and perform more efficiently and solar installers, who develop new and more creative methods to build out a safer and better performing system.”

“As more buildings are constructed with solar installed or solar-ready, the demand for better solutions will foster greater innovation of products and technology to allow a building, its roof and solar PV to works as one system,” Haddock says. “This will emphasize the importance of the solar platform (the roof) and bodes well for standing seam metal. It may also spawn new products and application methods, such as building integrated PV (BIPV), which has been around for years but also re-defined over those years.”