This month, the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index asked architecture firm leaders about how their firm’s revenue has performed this year and what their expectations are for 2027.
According to AIA, responding firms reported the following revenue expectations compared with 2025:
- 45% expect revenue to decline, by 2.9% on average.
- 30% expect growth; 13% anticipate gains of 10% or more.
- 25% expect revenue to remain about the same.
- Sharpest revenue declines were by firms with annual billings under $250,000 (7.2%) and firms in the Northeast (5.7%).
- Smallest declines were from firms with $5 million+ in billings (0%) and Midwest firms (0.7%).
AIA notes that compared with firms’ start-of-year estimates:
- 47% expect lower 2026 revenue (20% lower)
- 33% expect it to be about the same
- 21% expect higher revenue
- 57% of multifamily firms most often expect lower revenue
- 29% of small firms most often expect higher revenue
When looking ahead to 2027:
- 32% of firm leaders expect that net revenue growth will decrease
- 36% stay about the same as 2026
- 32% expect that revenue will increase
AIA says that firm leaders expect net revenue to decline 0.9% on average in 2027. The projected drop is steeper for small firms (9.1%) and for firms in the Northeast or specializing in multifamily residential (3.5% each).
Responding firms expecting revenue to decline in 2027 cited these major factors:
- 70%: Current projects winding down, with fewer new projects ahead
- 56%: Economic uncertainty discouraging clients from pursuing projects
- 55%: Fewer opportunities and less work in the pipeline
- 54%: Weak construction-market conditions, including high costs, elevated vacancies, weak demand, and restrictive financing
According to AIA, the most commonly cited factor behind expected 2027 revenue growth was larger projects moving forward (46%). Nearly two-thirds of firm leaders said improved construction financing, increased staffing, and AI-driven efficiency would not contribute to growth, says AIA.
— With files from AIA
